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28-3: The Greatest Comeback in NFL & Super Bowl History—Broken Down by the Numbers

NFL x Data | Brady x Immortality

Author

Samuel Rogers
October 29, 2025

🧩 The Setup: 28-3, 2:12 left in the 3rd quarter

The Atlanta Falcons had it locked.

  • Lead: 28-3

  • Time remaining: 17:12

  • Win probability: 99.8% (ESPN model)

Then came the most improbable, data-defying, system-exposing turnaround in sports history.

🔍 THE COMEBACK: DATA SNAPSHOT

Metric

Falcons (Q4 + OT)

Patriots (Q4 + OT)

Offensive Plays

16

46

Yards Gained

44

287

Time of Possession

4:40

19:34

3rd Down Conversion Rate

0/3

7/10

Red Zone Trips

0

4

Sacks Allowed

2

0

Points Scored

0

31

+25 Unanswered Points by New England to tie it.
+6 in Overtime to seal it.
34-28 Final. First OT in Super Bowl history.
Win probability flipped from 0.2% → 100%.

🧮 Advanced Analytics Breakdown

📊 EPA (Expected Points Added) per play:

  • Patriots Q4 + OT: +0.57

  • Falcons Q4 + OT: -0.45

🎯 Success Rate (Plays gaining >50% needed yards):

  • Patriots: 68%

  • Falcons: 29%

🔥 Tom Brady (Q4 + OT):

  • Passer Rating: 125.2

  • Completions: 21/27

  • Yards: 246

  • TDs: 2

  • Zero Turnovers

  • Total Pass Attempts (Full Game): 62 – Super Bowl record

🤯 The Critical Collapse (Falcons)

  1. 3rd & 1 at NE 32 with 8:31 left.
    ➤ Sack. Lost 12 yards.

  2. 1st & 10 at NE 22, up 28-20 with 4:40.
    ➤ Holding penalty. ➤ Sack. ➤ Out of FG range.

  3. Defensive Snaps in 2nd Half: 49
    ➤ Fatigue index spiked: 11 defenders played 90%+ of snaps.

  4. Julio Jones catch at 27 yard-line meant nothing.
    ➤ No points came from it. Time mismanaged.

Atlanta ran only 5 plays in Patriots territory after the 3rd quarter.

🐐 The GOAT Algorithm: Tom Brady’s Path to Immortality

Brady's 2nd Half & OT Passing Chart
✅ Short game.
✅ Middle-of-field domination.
✅ Zero sacks. Zero turnovers.
✅ 5 receivers with 5+ receptions.

Drive

Plays

Yards

Result

1

12

75

TD (White)

2

5

25

Punt

3

12

72

TD + 2PT

4

10

91

TD + 2PT

OT

8

75

TD (White)

📈 The Hidden MVP: James White

James White (RB, Patriots)

  • Total Yards: 139

  • Receptions: 14 (SB record)

  • TDs: 3 (including game-winner in OT)

  • Yards After Catch: 76

White accounted for 48.8% of NE’s points.

💡 Blunt Takeaways

  1. Play Volume = Win Probability
    Patriots ran 93 plays to Falcons’ 46.
    Snap count fatigue cracked Atlanta’s front seven.

  2. Passing Game Efficiency > Big Plays
    New England executed 35+ short-yardage gains that kept chains moving.

  3. Situational Mastery Wins Titles

    • 3rd downs: NE 7/10 (Q4 + OT)

    • Penalty discipline: 4 (NE) vs 9 (ATL)

  4. You’re Never Out—Unless You Stop Executing

🧠 The Greatest Comeback… and the Greatest Collapse

  • 31 unanswered points.

  • Overtime magic.

  • All-time GOAT moment.

  • And the only thing more brutal than the scoreboard…
    was the data behind it.

📣 Want More Data-Driven Sports Strategy Like This?

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