• Blunt Insights
  • Posts
  • 🧨 Bucks Blow It Up: Lillard Waived, Turner Signed in NBA’s Most Expensive Reset

🧨 Bucks Blow It Up: Lillard Waived, Turner Signed in NBA’s Most Expensive Reset

The largest stretch provision in league history. A superstar cut. And a shot-blocker becomes the Bucks' new bet. This isn’t a rebuild—it’s a rewire.🧠 Why it matters: Milwaukee just dumped a $113M future Hall-of-Famer to sign a shot-blocking floor spacer—Myles Turner. The Bucks have chosen defense, spacing, and financial gymnastics over superstardom.

šŸ’° THE NUMBERS: STRETCH, SPEND, SACRIFICE

šŸ’ø Transaction

🧾 Details

Damian Lillard waived

$112.58M remaining. Stretched over 5 years = $22.52M/year dead cap through 2029–30

Myles Turner deal

4 years, $107M. Includes player option (Year 4) + 15% trade kicker

Cap freed 2025–26

~$27M (enough to sign Turner outright)

Net cap impact

Bucks carry $22.5M/year in dead money to free up ~$4M/year of cap difference vs Lillard’s deal

🧾 Biggest stretch hit in NBA history, surpassing Nicolas Batum’s $9M/year stretch with the Hornets. This is 2.5x that.

🧠 STRATEGIC ANALYSIS: GIANNIS GOES DEFENSE-FIRST

Milwaukee’s pivot suggests a total re-prioritization:

Trait

Lillard (Old Plan)

Turner (New Plan)

Offensive Value

Primary creator, ISO scorer

Stretch big, pick-and-pop

Defensive Impact

-1.9 DRPM

+2.1 DRPM, elite rim protection

Injury Risk

Achilles tear, out through mid-2026

Durable last 3 seasons

Age

35 in July

29 entering prime

Cap Impact

$56M/year total tax hit

$26.75M/year

🧠 The thesis: Lillard’s contract → too steep for a contender. Turner offers cost-efficient, rim-protecting flexibility in the post-Lopez era.

šŸ”¬ TURNER IN MILWAUKEE: THE FIT

šŸ“ˆ 2024–25 Stats (Pacers):

  • 15.6 PPG / 6.5 RPG / 2.0 BPG

  • 48.1 FG% / 39.6 3P% / 77.3 FT%

  • Top 3 in NBA rim contests per 36 minutes

  • +4.3 Net Rating when on floor

šŸ” Lopez Out → Turner In

  • Lopez 2024 advanced stats: 1.7 BPG, 34.9% 3PT

  • Turner upgrades rim D and 3PT shooting

  • Defensive Rating projection with Turner: +2–3 improvement

šŸ“ System fit:

  • Floor spacing for Giannis drives

  • Anchors defense with switchability

  • Allows Bucks to maintain 5-out spacing without sacrificing interior protection

āš ļø THE RISKS

šŸ“‰ Dead cap hangover: $22.5M/year in dead money limits mid-tier depth options for 5 seasons.

🚫 Playmaker vacuum: Lillard’s exit leaves Milwaukee without a true #1 initiator.

šŸ¤” Locker room optics: Waiving a future Hall of Famer after one year may send the wrong message to stars—and Giannis hasn’t commented yet.

šŸ“… Giannis contract alert: Player option in 2026. This move will either extend his window or accelerate his exit.

🧠 BLUNT INSIGHT TAKE

Milwaukee didn’t just reshuffle. They detonated the backcourt to rebuild the frontcourt.

  • Largest financial stretch in NBA history

  • Highest-paid non-All-Star center in 2025

  • Deep cap ripple through 2030

🧩 This is not a rebuild. It’s a tactical pivot: lower usage, more spacing, and elite defense to extend Giannis’ peak window.

But now Milwaukee’s fate depends on two things:

  1. Can Turner stay healthy & defend at a top‑5 level?

  2. Can they find a real playmaker before the playoffs?

šŸ”® NEXT MOVES TO WATCH

  • šŸ” Sign-and-trade for a vet guard? (Terry Rozier, Tyus Jones)

  • šŸŽÆ Targeting high-IQ secondary creators

  • šŸ’° Mid-level exception depth splashes

  • šŸ“± Watch Giannis’ social media + 2026 free agency signals

🧨 FINAL WORD

Milwaukee pulled the loudest free agency lever of the offseason. This isn’t a cost-cutting move—it’s a calculated gamble on team identity. They bet that rim protection + flexibility > aging stardom.

The NBA just got a lesson in cap calculus. Now we wait to see if it pays off in wins—or walkouts.

šŸ‘‰ Liked this breakdown?
Every Monday and Thursday, Blunt Insight delivers no-fluff, data-obsessed analysis on the business of sports and strategy.
Subscribe now. Stay sharper than Vegas.