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Indiana 116, Oklahoma City 107.
The Pacers flipped the series. Not with stars. Not with flash.
But with bench scoring, fourth-quarter execution, and turnover pressure so elite it looked designed in an MIT lab.

Let’s break down what really happened — and why Game 4 on Friday could decide the 2025 NBA Champion.

📉 Game 3: The Hidden Data That Changed the Finals

🧮 Advanced Stat Recap

Metric	Pacers	Thunder	Margin
Bench Points	49	18	+31
Turnovers	12	17	+5
Fourth-Qtr Pts	32	18	+14
Q4 FG%	54%	35%	+19%
Offensive Rebounding %	29%	21%	+8%
Transition Points	22	11	+11
Haliburton +/-	+14	—	—
Mathurin (off bench)	27 PTS	—	—

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🔎 Efficiency swing: Indiana’s effective FG% in the fourth: 63.2%.
Oklahoma City’s: 35.0%.
That’s not shot-making — that’s winning math.

📌 Spotlight: The Pacers’ Bench Isn’t a Subplot — It’s the Plot

Bennedict Mathurin

27 points
9-of-12 FG (75%)
+16 in 22 minutes

Most efficient Finals bench performance since Jason Terry in 2011.
And the Pacers ran their offense through him in Q4.

T.J. McConnell

10 pts, 5 asts, 5 stls
+12 Net Rating on floor
3 steals in final 9 minutes

Indiana’s second unit outscored OKC by 2.5 points per minute.
You read that right. Pure leverage.

🧠 Strategic Pressure Points

1. Turnovers Create Margin

Oklahoma City’s 17 turnovers resulted in 23 Indiana points.
That’s more than the final margin.

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OKC’s Turnover Rate (TOR): 21.7%
NBA Finals average: ~13%
That’s catastrophic.

2. Pacers: Post-Loss Perfection

Indiana is 10–0 following a loss since March.
Their adjustments hit fast, and they hit hard.

3. Haliburton’s Distribution Machine

22 pts / 11 asts / 9 rebs
19 potential assists
0 turnovers in 41 minutes

He controls tempo, spacing, and late-game composure like a surgeon.

📉 Oklahoma City: The Cracks Are Showing

🔄 Rotation Fatigue

Cason Wallace: –12 in 11 minutes
Isaiah Joe: 0-for-3 from deep
Thunder bench: –32 Net Rating

😵‍💫 Late Game Collapse (again)

OKC scored just 18 points in Q4 — 6 field goals total.
They had 5 turnovers in the last 7 minutes.

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In Games 2 and 3 combined, OKC has shot 11-of-41 (26.8%) in the 4th quarter.

🔮 Game 4 Preview: Tactical Pressure Cooker

📍 Friday, June 13 | Indianapolis

✅ What Pacers Must Do:

Keep staggering Haliburton + McConnell to maintain spacing
Feed Mathurin early to force OKC help rotations
Defend Shai with verticality and force mid-range contests (SGA was 3/9 from 14–18 ft in Game 3)

❌ What Thunder Must Fix:

Cut TOs to <13
Bench production must jump by +15 pts
Attack Pacers’ drop coverage earlier in the clock

SGA's Usage Rate in Game 3: 34.6%
If he’s going to dominate the ball, OKC must increase 3PA (only 23 attempts) and clean second-chance offense.

🧠 Predictive Models Tilt Toward Indiana

Elo Shift (after Game 3):

Pacers: +62 (now 1740)
Thunder: –62 (now 1696)

Game 4 Win Probabilities:

Indiana: 64%
OKC: 36%

Series win odds (Pacers):

Before Game 3: 41%
Now: 71%

History doesn’t lie: 33 of 41 teams that won Game 3 (when tied 1–1) went on to win the Finals.

🧨 Blunt Insight: Game 4 Is the Leverage Game

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If Indiana wins Game 4, the series becomes a 78% lock.
If OKC steals it, it becomes a coin flip again.

Game 4 isn’t just a must-win for the Thunder.
It’s the series pivot — mathematically and mentally.

For the Front Office, Fans & Freaks

Front offices: Study Indiana’s two-unit staggering. It’s a masterclass in maximizing bench value.
Fans: This is high-leverage basketball at its finest. Every Q4 possession is a data story.
Analytics pros: Track fourth-quarter eFG%, TO%, and 3PA rate. These three metrics are predicting the game.

🏁 Final Word

Indiana’s role players didn’t just contribute.
They rewrote the Finals.

Game 4 is coming. The question is simple:
Can the Thunder solve the math? Or will the Pacers bury them in it?

🏀 Game 3 Was a Data Earthquake — Now Comes the Reckoning in Game 4