Premier League 2025/26 Season Preview

Data Wins Titles. Who’s Built to Win?

Author

Samuel Rogers
August 12, 2025

🧠 What’s Going On This Week in Football?

The EPL kicks off this Friday — and the 2025/26 season promises a brutal collision of data-backed tactics, squad evolution curves, and smart-money strategy. In this edition of Blunt Insights, we cut through the hype and go full analytics mode.

No fluff. Just insights you need.

⚽️ Tier 1 Contenders: The Data Case for Each

🎯 Manchester City

  • xG Diff/Game: +1.91

  • Field Tilt: 66.3% (Top 2% in Europe)

  • Continuity Index: 88% (13 of Top 15 return)

  • 🔍 Verdict: Still the machine. Reduced churn = compounding tactical returns.

🚀 Arsenal

  • Youngest XI: 24.5 years

  • xG Momentum Curve: +0.23 over last 8 matches

  • U23 Minutes %: 31.2%

  • 🔍 Verdict: Squad hitting prime window. Elite press + wide overloads evolving.

🔴 Liverpool

  • High Press Wins/Game: 9.1 (Top 3 in Europe)

  • New Midfield Pivots: Szoboszlai & Mac Allister completed 94% pass under pressure

  • 🔍 Verdict: Tactical ceiling is real — depth will decide.

📉 Regression Watch: Who's Due for a Fall?

🟡 Manchester United

  • xPTS Overperformance: +13.7

  • Post-Shot xG Delta: -0.19

  • Shots Outside Box Goals: 17 (League-high)

  • 🔍 Flag: Massive gap between result and underlying numbers. Luck will fade.

🟣 Aston Villa

  • Set Piece Goals: 15 (2.3x league average)

  • Conversion on Corners: 4.2%

  • 🔍 Flag: EmeryBall works — but reliance on low-frequency events is risky.

🔬 Tactical Evolutions to Track

Club

Tactical Note

Key Data Anchor

Arsenal

3-box-3 w/ inverted FBs

6.1 passes per final-third entry

Man City

Wing overloads w/ fluid 2-3-5 rotations

43.2% final-third possession share

Tottenham

Chaos system: vertical + dribble heavy

Most 1v1s per match in EPL

Chelsea

Midblock + Reece pivot activation

Most key passes per 90 (non-top 4)

Brighton

Positional rotations + false 10 overlay

17 unique goal contributors last year

📊 Efficiency Rankings: Spend vs. Output

Club

Net Spend

Wage Bill Rank

xG Diff

U23 %

Efficiency Tier

Manchester City

£95M

#1

+1.91

18.4%

A+

Arsenal

£72M

#5

+1.23

31.2%

A

Chelsea

£129M

#3

+0.65

44.5%

B

Aston Villa

£38M

#8

+0.18

16.7%

A

Man United

£116M

#2

-0.07

19.3%

C-

🧠 Insight: Arsenal’s data profile is “next-up” — elite spend efficiency + age curve. United’s payroll-to-xG profile is unsustainable.

📉 Final Model Projection – Powered by Multi-Metric Forecasting

Rank

Club

Drivers

1

Man City

Continuity + final-third possession control

2

Arsenal

Squad maturity + tactical flexibility

3

Liverpool

Pressing + shot quality edge

4

Chelsea

Dribble volume + attacking width

5

Aston Villa

Emery tactical craft

6

Spurs

Unpredictability + 1v1 dominance

7

Brighton

Positional variance + pass security

8

Man United

Regressed metrics + high variance play

🔮 Title Odds (Implied from Bookmakers)

Club

Win Probability (%)

Man City

46.2%

Arsenal

24.1%

Liverpool

13.3%

Chelsea

6.8%

Tottenham

4.1%

All Others

5.5%

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