đ DRAFT SNAPSHOT
đď¸ Dates: June 25â26, 2025
đ Location: Barclays Center, Brooklyn
đŻ Total Picks: 59 (Knicks forfeited 2nd-rounder)
đş Broadcast: Round 1 (ABC/ESPN), Round 2 (ESPN only)
đ WHOâS REALLY #1? MEET THE METRIC MONSTER
đš Cooper Flagg (Duke â Dallas Mavericks)
Box Plus-Minus (BPM): +14.0 â 2nd in NCAA (all players), highest for a freshman since Zion
True Shooting % (TS%): 63.4%
Defensive Rating: 91.7
DRIP (FiveThirtyEight's player projection): Projects Top 10 player by Year 4 â comparable to Embiid, Towns
Player Archetype: 2-way unicorn, Franz Wagner + Andrei Kirilenko hybrid with LeBron decision-making flashes
Quote: "He changes geometry. On offense and defense."
TL;DR: Historic prospect by nearly every measurable KPI. Safe floor, nuclear ceiling. The only sure thing in the draft.
đ THE NEXT 5: UPSIDE VS. RISK MATRIX
Prospect | TS% | BPM | DEF RTG | Archetype | Draft Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dylan Harper | 56.8% | +7.2 | 102.5 | Combo guard | Moderate |
V.J. Edgecombe | 60.2% | +8.1 | 99.6 | Slasher/wing | Low |
Ace Bailey | 52.5% | +5.4 | 103.7 | Scoring forward | High |
Khaman Maluach | N/A | Intl | N/A | Rim protector | Medium |
Kon Knueppel | 63.1% | +6.0 | 98.1 | Spot-up shooter | Low |
đĄ Draft Intel:
Harper (Rutgers): Elite P&R decision-maker, shaky shooting consistency. Best fit with structured development team (Spurs).
Bailey (Rutgers): Declined pre-draft workoutsâa risky play that may cost him millions.
Knueppel (Duke): Analytics darling. 45.2% from 3. High IQ, low flash, but big value.
đ§ DRAFT STRATEGY: WHOâS WINNING THE MATH?
đ Phoenix Suns (#10 via Durant trade)
Intent: Packaging pick to move up or acquire starter
Value Trend: Targeting wings with elite spacing metrics (Knueppel or Edgecombe)
đ Brooklyn Nets (4 First-Round Picks)
Analytics Pivot: Top-5 in value accumulation models
Watch For: Packaging for future picks, or international stash with upside
đ San Antonio Spurs
Victor + Dylan Harper?
Guard-center pairing built on P&R chemistry
Long-term franchise identity in the making
đ DRAFT DEPTH FALLOFF (AFTER #20)
â ď¸ âFlat Curveâ Warning
DRIP + BPM projections show a steep decline in potential value post-pick 20
Returning college stars depleted pool (e.g., Donovan Dent, Walter Clayton Jr. stayed in school)
Late first-rounders have average -1.4 BPM, down 32% vs. 2024 class
đ Late Value Watchlist:
Collin Murray-Boyles (SC) â 2-way PF, high defensive floor
Derik Queen (Maryland) â post scorer, low mobility
AJ Dybantsa (2026 eligible) â teams may stash future rights
đľ VALUE BY THE NUMBERS
Rookie Scale (2025â26)
Pick | Guaranteed $ | 2-Year Value |
|---|---|---|
#1 | $10.2M | $21.9M |
#5 | $6.8M | $14.5M |
#20 | $3.1M | $6.2M |
Strategic Insight: Sliding from #3 to #6 = ~$6M value loss in just two years
Translation: Analytics matter. Margins matter. Draft position is economics + strategy.
đ BLUNT INSIGHT TAKEAWAYS
Flagg is a generational lock. DRIP, BPM, eye testâhe checks every box.
Harper to Wemby = chaos chemistry. If San Antonio plays this smart, weâre watching the next decadeâs best duo.
Phoenix & Nets control the middle. Flexibility + multiple picks = opportunity for arbitrage.
Depth drops hard. This isnât a 60-player class. Itâs 20 players + upside bets.
Draft = data game. Teams embracing models are separating themselves from gut-check GMs.
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