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🏀 The 2025 NBA Draft — Cooper, Chaos, and Cold Analytics

Flagg to Dallas. Harper in San Antonio. Nets with four picks. Depth drop-off after #20. This year’s NBA Draft is a masterclass in upside, risk, and market inefficiency—and the data tells the whole story.

Author

Samuel Rogers
June 25, 2025

đź“Ť DRAFT SNAPSHOT

  • 🗓️ Dates: June 25–26, 2025

  • đź“Ť Location: Barclays Center, Brooklyn

  • 🎯 Total Picks: 59 (Knicks forfeited 2nd-rounder)

  • đź“ş Broadcast: Round 1 (ABC/ESPN), Round 2 (ESPN only)

🔝 WHO’S REALLY #1? MEET THE METRIC MONSTER

🔹 Cooper Flagg (Duke → Dallas Mavericks)

  • Box Plus-Minus (BPM): +14.0 — 2nd in NCAA (all players), highest for a freshman since Zion

  • True Shooting % (TS%): 63.4%

  • Defensive Rating: 91.7

  • DRIP (FiveThirtyEight's player projection): Projects Top 10 player by Year 4 — comparable to Embiid, Towns

  • Player Archetype: 2-way unicorn, Franz Wagner + Andrei Kirilenko hybrid with LeBron decision-making flashes

  • Quote: "He changes geometry. On offense and defense."

TL;DR: Historic prospect by nearly every measurable KPI. Safe floor, nuclear ceiling. The only sure thing in the draft.

đź“Š THE NEXT 5: UPSIDE VS. RISK MATRIX

Prospect

TS%

BPM

DEF RTG

Archetype

Draft Risk

Dylan Harper

56.8%

+7.2

102.5

Combo guard

Moderate

V.J. Edgecombe

60.2%

+8.1

99.6

Slasher/wing

Low

Ace Bailey

52.5%

+5.4

103.7

Scoring forward

High

Khaman Maluach

N/A

Intl

N/A

Rim protector

Medium

Kon Knueppel

63.1%

+6.0

98.1

Spot-up shooter

Low

đź’ˇ Draft Intel:

  • Harper (Rutgers): Elite P&R decision-maker, shaky shooting consistency. Best fit with structured development team (Spurs).

  • Bailey (Rutgers): Declined pre-draft workouts—a risky play that may cost him millions.

  • Knueppel (Duke): Analytics darling. 45.2% from 3. High IQ, low flash, but big value.

🧠 DRAFT STRATEGY: WHO’S WINNING THE MATH?

đź“Ś Phoenix Suns (#10 via Durant trade)

  • Intent: Packaging pick to move up or acquire starter

  • Value Trend: Targeting wings with elite spacing metrics (Knueppel or Edgecombe)

đź“Ś Brooklyn Nets (4 First-Round Picks)

  • Analytics Pivot: Top-5 in value accumulation models

  • Watch For: Packaging for future picks, or international stash with upside

đź“Ś San Antonio Spurs

  • Victor + Dylan Harper?

    • Guard-center pairing built on P&R chemistry

    • Long-term franchise identity in the making

📉 DRAFT DEPTH FALLOFF (AFTER #20)

⚠️ “Flat Curve” Warning

  • DRIP + BPM projections show a steep decline in potential value post-pick 20

  • Returning college stars depleted pool (e.g., Donovan Dent, Walter Clayton Jr. stayed in school)

  • Late first-rounders have average -1.4 BPM, down 32% vs. 2024 class

🔍 Late Value Watchlist:

  • Collin Murray-Boyles (SC) – 2-way PF, high defensive floor

  • Derik Queen (Maryland) – post scorer, low mobility

  • AJ Dybantsa (2026 eligible) – teams may stash future rights

đź’µ VALUE BY THE NUMBERS

Rookie Scale (2025–26)

Pick

Guaranteed $

2-Year Value

#1

$10.2M

$21.9M

#5

$6.8M

$14.5M

#20

$3.1M

$6.2M

  • Strategic Insight: Sliding from #3 to #6 = ~$6M value loss in just two years

  • Translation: Analytics matter. Margins matter. Draft position is economics + strategy.

🚀 BLUNT INSIGHT TAKEAWAYS

  1. Flagg is a generational lock. DRIP, BPM, eye test—he checks every box.

  2. Harper to Wemby = chaos chemistry. If San Antonio plays this smart, we’re watching the next decade’s best duo.

  3. Phoenix & Nets control the middle. Flexibility + multiple picks = opportunity for arbitrage.

  4. Depth drops hard. This isn’t a 60-player class. It’s 20 players + upside bets.

  5. Draft = data game. Teams embracing models are separating themselves from gut-check GMs.

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