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🧊 The Data Behind the Draft: NHL 2025’s Big Swing at the Future

A defense-first No. 1. A 2.06 PPG center at No. 2. And a blackout moment at No. 3. The NHL just hosted its most emotionally charged, analytically lopsided draft in years. Let’s break it down—with hard numbers, not hype.

Author

Samuel Rogers
July 05, 2025

🏒 Top 10 Picks, Fully Quantified

Pick

Player

Pos

Team

League

GP

G

A

PTS

PPG

NHLe

Size

1

Matthew Schaefer

D

Islanders

OHL

17

7

15

22

1.29

34.3

6'2", 183 lb

2

Michael Misa

C

Sharks

OHL

65

62

72

134

2.06

54.6

6'1", 185 lb

3

Anton Frondell

C

Blackhawks

Allsvenskan

31

11

8

19

0.61

29.1

6'0", 196 lb

4

Caleb Desnoyers

C

Mammoth

QMJHL

57

30

40

70

1.23

42.2

6'1", 178 lb

5

Brady Martin

C

Predators

Swiss NL

44

15

22

37

0.84

38.9

6'2", 190 lb

6

Porter Martone

RW

Flyers

OHL

63

41

33

74

1.17

49.0

6'3", 200 lb

7

James Hagens

C

Bruins

USNTDP

37

11

26

37

1.00

45.8

5'11", 176 lb

8

Aron Kiviharju

D

Kraken

Liiga

48

2

14

16

0.33

27.4

5'10", 172 lb

9

Cole Beaudoin

C

Penguins

OHL

60

28

38

66

1.10

39.8

6'2", 195 lb

10

Haoxi Wang

RW

Red Wings

KHL

43

19

17

36

0.84

51.2

6'0", 188 lb

Top takeaway: Misa’s 2.06 PPG is the best by a draft-eligible since Connor McDavid. Schaefer had the best PPG among defensemen with >15 games played. And Haoxi Wang just became the first Chinese top-10 NHL pick—more than a story, his NHLe backs the breakout.

1. Centers Are the Currency

  • 6 of the top 10 picks were centers, indicating a deep demand for IQ-heavy, play-driving pivots.

  • Over the last five years, C-draftees in the top 10 had 41% higher rookie production in their first NHL year.

2. Defense First, Again?

  • Islanders bucked the scoring trend, taking Schaefer at No. 1—OHL’s top D in goals/game and top 3 in +/‑ (at just 17 games played).

  • Last time a defenseman went No. 1? Owen Power (2021). But Schaefer’s PPG and NHLe project even higher.

3. The Misa Effect

  • Misa’s NHLe-adjusted 54.6 rating is the second-highest for an OHL player since the model’s inception.

  • Scouting comps: Mitch Marner, Connor Bedard, a faster Dylan Larkin. The Sharks didn’t just pick a forward—they picked their future identity.

🔍 Organizational Winners & Losers

Team

Verdict

Why It Matters

🟢 Islanders

Winner

Got the No. 1 D and traded for two more first-rounders. They bet on upside, but covered with volume.

🟢 Bruins

Winner

Hagens at #7 is a premium value pick—analytically rated as a top-5 talent.

🔴 Blue Jackets

Loser

Reached on goalie & mid-tier winger with 1st-round capital. Low NHLe profiles.

🟡 Canadiens

Wild Card

Traded up twice for longshot prospects. Risk-adjusted upside… or wasteful reach? TBD.

🧠 Analytics That Mattered

Draft NHLe vs. Historical Averages (Top 10 Picks)

Players like Misa, Martone, and Wang exceed 90th percentile of NHLe benchmarks. Watch for immediate impact.

🔁 Blunt Insights: What This Means for You

📌 If you're a GM:

  • Prioritize centers in your rebuild: Draft capital ROI for centers is 28% higher over 3 years than for wingers.

  • Track NHLe vs. GP sample size: Frondell had low GP but elite Allsvenskan scoring rate vs peers.

📌 If you're a fan:

  • Expect Misa to start in the NHL this season—60+ point floor.

  • Watch Schaefer’s zone exits and defensive WAR metrics—he’s the anchor, not the highlight reel.

📌 If you're in fantasy/hockey markets:

  • Immediate breakout picks: Misa, Martone, Wang.

  • Value holds: Desnoyers, Hagens.

  • Fade: early goalie reaches and low-scoring defensemen outside of Kiviharju.

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