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The Data-Savvy 2025 NCAA FBS Football Season Preview

No fluff. Just the sharpest data in the game.

Author

Samuel Rogers
August 22, 2025

📅 Season Kickoff: August 28, 2025
📍Playoff Chaos Probability? 68.7% (per TRACR volatility index)
🔢 Title Frontrunners: Texas | Georgia | Ohio State | Alabama
📈 Breakout Tracker: Baylor | Boise State | Penn State

🔍 Power Index Heat Map: The 2025 Contenders Landscape

Using ESPN FPI, SoS-adjusted Win Probability, and TRACR-based playoff modeling

🏆 Team

🧠 FPI Rank

📈 Projected Wins

🎯 CFP Odds

🔥 Title Odds

Texas

#1 (28.5)

10.4

83.9%

22.2%

Georgia

#2 (26.6)

10.1

78.6%

17.5%

Ohio State

#3 (23.8)

10.4

70.6%

11.6%

Alabama

#4 (24.2)

9.6

66.2%

9.1%

Penn State

#5 (22.0)

9.9

63.8%

8.4%

Tennessee

#6 (20.7)

8.7

38.5%

4.6%

📊 Texas boasts the nation’s highest team efficiency rating (TEFF) and returns 84% of its defensive production.

🧠 Smart Conference Picks

Built from opponent-adjusted EPA, weighted drive success rate & TRACR win simulations

🔵 SEC

  • Top 3 Win Probabilities:

    • Texas (6+ wins chance: 100%)

    • Georgia (99.6%)

    • Alabama (98.2%)

  • Big Watch: Alabama's 25-player portal exodus = 41 total departures. Rebuild on-the-fly or collapse risk?

🔴 Big Ten

  • Ohio State: Top-5 in offensive points per drive, even with new OC.

  • Penn State: Surging defense, top 10 in pressure rate.

  • Oregon: Dangerous outlier in pass efficiency & WR YAC gains.

🟣 Big 12

  • Kansas State: Top 10 in run-blocking grade.

  • Boise State (yes, Big 12 newcomer): 25.2% CFP odds.

  • Utah: Veteran roster; TRACR volatility model pegs them most likely to upset elite.

🧪 Analytics-First Storylines to Watch

🔬 1. Offensive Line Continuity = Win Margins

  • Texas replaces 4 starters from a unit that ranked 118th in sack rate.

  • TRACR-OL Cohesion Index drops them to tier-2 protection rating—risk on pass-heavy sets.

📉 2. Alabama’s Portal Fallout

  • Lost both lines’ anchors + QB Jalen Milroe.

  • New starters + adjusted 2024 snap-weighted experience: ranked 81st.

📈 3. Under-the-Radar Programs

  • Baylor: Top-5 in returning production & 3rd easiest Big 12 schedule.

  • Boise State: Most efficient G5 defense per TRACR-D, ranked higher than 17 FBS P5 teams.

📌 Player Efficiency Preview (PEP) — Key Names to Track

👤 Player

🏈 Team

🧮 PEP Index

🔥 Breakout Likelihood

Arch Manning

Texas

92.3

94%

Jeremiah Smith (WR)

Ohio State

89.7

88%

Maddux Madsen (QB)

Boise State

85.1

91%

DeAndre Moore Jr.

Texas

87.5

93%

🎯 Expect explosive yardage after catch (YAC) metrics to redefine Moore’s draft profile this season.

🧠 Data-Savvy Predictions: Top 4 at Season End

🏆 Projected CFP Teams (via TRACR Simulation, 10,000 runs)

  1. Texas – 88% chance

  2. Georgia – 74%

  3. Ohio State – 67%

  4. Boise State – 26% (!)

💡 A non-Power Five team (Boise) has the highest CFP probability of any G5 school since 2011.

Your Season Edge Starts Here

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