đ June 12â15, 2025 | đ Oakmont Country Club, Pennsylvania | đĽ 156 players | đŞ 36-hole cut
đŹ Why Oakmont Is Golf's Purest Torture Test
Welcome to Oakmont Country Club, the statistical graveyard where birdies go to die.
Par: 70
Yardage: 7,372 yards
Green Speed: 14+ on the Stimpmeter â glasslike
Rough: 5"+ deep fescue â brutal
Bunkers: 175, including the famous âChurch Pewsâ
Historical scoring avg: +2.89 per round â second-highest in U.S. Open history
đ§ In 2016, only 4 players finished under par. In 2007, the winning score was +5. This isnât just a golf course â itâs a data-backed battlefield.
𧎠Data Snapshot: Oakmontâs Predictive DNA
Metric | Predictor Strength | Top Indicators |
|---|---|---|
SG: Off the Tee | đĽ High | Driving accuracy + distance |
SG: Approach | đĽ High | Midâlong iron performance |
SG: Putting (Poa greens) | â ď¸ Medium | 8 ft and in is critical |
Scoring on 450â500 yd Par-4s | đĽđĽđĽ | Oakmont has six of them |
đ Winning Formula: Long + precise + mentally elite.
đŻ Holes That Break You (Or Make You)
Hole | Par/Yards | Avg Score (2016) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
1 | Par 4 / 488 yds | 4.45 | #1 bogey hole â start strong or spiral |
3 | Par 4 / 426 yds | 4.32 | Church Pews bunker â a true round wrecker |
8 | Par 3 / 288 yds | 3.30 | Brutal; only 3% birdie rate |
12 | Par 5 / 632 yds | 5.14 | Longest hole; eagle risk = 0.01% |
17 | Par 4 / 313 yds | 3.71 | Drivable â decision tree analytics in action |
đ Players to Watch â Backed by Stats, Not Hype
đŠ Scottie Scheffler â The Data King
Odds: +275 (BetMGM)
Win Rate: 32% over last 31 starts
Strokes Gained (Last 24 rounds):
Off the Tee: +1.11
Approach: +1.59
Putting: +0.48
Oakmont Fit: Ideal â long, accurate, composed under pressure
đ 17.8% of tickets, 31.3% of money = sharp convergence
đˇ Bryson DeChambeau â The Bomber Who Broke Winged Foot
Odds: +650
U.S. Open Wins: 2020, 2024
SG Off the Tee: +0.91
Par-4 Performance (450â500 yd): 2nd on Tour
Oakmont demands strength + brain â and Bryson brings both.
đś Tommy Fleetwood â The Quiet Killer
Odds: 30/1
Topâ10 Finishes: 3 of last 5 majors
SG: Approach (Last 12 rounds): +0.82
SG: Poa putting: Neutral
Ballstriking consistency matches Oakmont's margin-for-error math.
đ´ Sleeper Model Picks
Sepp Straka â Elite accuracy, model darling
Russell Henley â Top-10 in SG: Approach, underrated on tough courses
Patrick Cantlay â T2G machine, needs a putting spike
Marc Leishman (LIV) â Historical Oakmont form, extreme value at 75/1
đŁ LIV vs PGA â The Civil War Continues
LIV Strengths: Power, aggressive play, less scar tissue
PGA Edge: Rhythm, Poa green experience, full Tour schedule stats
Expect a showdown: Rahm, Koepka, Bryson vs Scheffler, Rory, Xander
đ¸ Betting Strategy Breakdown
Player | Value Tier | Optimal Bet |
|---|---|---|
Scheffler | đĽ Top Chalk | Outright Win + Top 5 Parlay |
DeChambeau | đ¨ Mid Value | Top 10 + Each-Way |
Fleetwood | đ High EV | Top 20 + Round 1 Leader |
Henley / Straka | đ§ Sharp Sleeper | Top 20/40 + Matchups |
đŻ Blunt Betting Edge: Fade emotion. Follow the data â approach play, driver fit, putting variance range, and weather forecast = key predictive mix.
đ Forecast & Course Conditions
ThursdayâFriday: Warm & dry
Weekend: Possible thunderstorms â soft greens = pin-seekers benefit
Cut Projection: +5.5 strokes (historical avg)
đŁ Final Thought â The Cut Is Coming
Oakmont doesnât reward luck. It demands data-driven precision, mental resilience, and course management that borders on chess. This week, bet on the numbers â not the names.
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