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🏀 The Turning Point: NBA Finals Game 4 Recap + Game 5 Data War Room

A no-fluff, data-dripping breakdown of the biggest game in basketball. Every number. Every edge.

Author

Samuel Rogers
June 16, 2025

🔥 GAME 4 RECAP: Thunder 111, Pacers 104

Series tied 2–2 | Momentum violently reset.

“When the air gets thin, Shai breathes deeper.”

📈 What the Numbers Say

  • Shai Gilgeous-Alexander:

    • 35 PTS (15 in last 4:38)

    • +13 plus-minus in the 4th

    • 64.3% TS (true shooting), 0 turnovers in the 4Q

  • Fourth Quarter Collapse – Indiana:

    • 17 total points

    • 0-for-8 from three

    • 1 assist, 4 turnovers

    • 27.8% FG

  • Key Supporting Roles (OKC):

    • Jalen Williams: 27 PTS, 6 REB, 3 STL

    • Alex Caruso: 20 off the bench on 5-for-6 shooting

    • Chet Holmgren: 15 REB, 3 BLK, contested Haliburton on 4 of final 6 possessions

  • Advanced Metrics:

    Metric

    OKC

    IND

    eFG% (adj shooting)

    56.7%

    50.1%

    FT Rate

    43.2

    19.4

    Rebounding Edge

    +9

    –

    Points in Paint

    48

    36

  • Line Impact: Thunder covered the –4.5 spread. Under cashed (O/U closed at 227.5).

📊 THE WAR ROOM: GAME 5 PREVIEW (MON, JUNE 16)

Venue: Paycom Center, OKC
Time: 8:30 PM ET on ABC
Line: Thunder –9.5 | O/U: 224.5
Series: Tied 2–2
Historical Odds: Game 5 winner in a 2–2 NBA Finals series wins 82.6% of the time.

🧠 KEY MATCHUPS

🔓 Thunder Edge Metrics

  • Home Record: 44–8 (NBA-best)

  • Q4 Scoring Margin (at home): +5.2

  • SGA Home Stats: 33.8 PPG, 8.1 AST, 60.3% eFG

  • Bench Points (Home): 32.7 average vs just 21.9 on the road

🔒 Pacers Path to Upset

  • Carlisle’s counter: Expect Mathurin/Nembhard rotation earlier to maintain tempo

  • 3P% rebound: Pacers 2nd in NBA in 3P rate; regression to mean after 0/8 in Q4 likely

  • Haliburton under pressure:

    • Game 4: 17 PTS, 8 AST, but 0-for-4 in 4Q

    • Guarded by Caruso + Dort in hybrid switches (held to 29.1% FG this postseason in those matchups)

Player

Stat Prop

Trend

Verdict

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

34.5 Points

Hit 4 of last 5 games

OVER – Usage spike

Haliburton

4.5 Rebounds

Under 3 in last 5

UNDER – Boxed out by length

Jalen Williams

1.5 Steals

Cleared in 6 of last 8

OVER – Disruptor mode

Chet Holmgren

7.5 Rebounds

15 in Game 4

OVER – Dominating verticality

🔬 ANALYTICS EDGE: THE CLUTCH INDEX

Player

Clutch Scoring (Last 5 mins, ±5)

eFG%

TO Rate

Impact

SGA

15 PTS (Game 4 alone)

75%

0%

Elite closer

Haliburton

0 PTS

0%

11%

Vulnerable under blitz

Caruso

+13 on-court differential

67%

0

Silent killer

Chet Holmgren

2 BLK, 3 DREB

–

–

Paint anchor

🧠 STRATEGIC SWING FACTORS

1. OKC’s Free Throw Dominance

  • Game 4 FTAs: 38 (vs Pacers' 17)

  • Drives per game: 56 (NBA-high this postseason)

2. Carlisle’s Final Adjustment

  • Zone-to-man hybrid scheme flopped in 4Q

  • Expect more high-switch traps on SGA early, forcing corner looks

3. Who Wins the Bench Battle?

  • Caruso, Joe, Holmgren vs. Mathurin, McConnell, Nesmith

  • Game 4: OKC bench outscored IND bench 38–20

💰 FINAL CALL: GAME 5 SHARP LEAN

  • Spread: Thunder –9.5 ✅

  • Total: Lean UNDER 224.5 ✅

  • Player Prop Parlay (0.5U):

    • SGA Over 34.5 PTS

    • Holmgren Over 7.5 REB

    • Caruso Over 1.5 3PM
      ✅ +480 payout potential

The pivot is here. Game 5 isn’t just a contest—it's a corridor to championship DNA.

If OKC wins, history shows they walk away with the title over 8 times in 10.
If Indiana wants chaos—they’ll need clutch flow, a Haliburton resurrection, and a defensive counterpunch.

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